Phases Of Social Media Use in Civil Change

Egypt and #Jan25 was perhaps the seminal, global wake-up call event of how social media can be used for driving civil change in a society. Some might argue that it was Iran in 2009 with the so-called “Twitter Revolution”. In fact social media did play a key role in the Arab Spring – but it did not start it. And continues to do so. The term “Arab Spring” itself has become a meme (more on that later.) Here we wanted to provide a quick overview of “how” social media tools are being used and the phases around driving civil change through these tools. We think it’s important to note that in the semi-final stage, social media can become irrelevant to the final change.

Phase One – Trigger Event
In Tunisia it was a fruit-stand operator who lit himself on fire to protest government corruption. In Egypt it was meant to be a small protest over the police beating of a so-called “drug dealer” that unintentionally became a drive for regime change. Any drive for change in society starts with a “Trigger Event”, something that gets a large enough portion of the population angry or motivated to start a movement for change. This doesn’t mean government change alone, it may be around a bill before legislation or simply getting a municipal by-law adopted.

Phase Two – Inception & Formation
This is where the “idea” that will become the meme or issue that will likely result in civil change. We call it the Inception Point. Someone starts it by venting on a blog, posting something on Facebook or a YouTube video around the evidence of the issue and may present the initial idea for a solution. It is at this point a number of tools begin to be used that will be used for later planning & organizing

Phase Three – Rallying & Packaging
The idea has gained momentum, perhaps a meme is starting to form. Enough people have come together that the Planning & Organizing element (or Rallying) starts to take on a more susbstantial form, the actors are becoming defined and some form of leadership or hierarchy is forming. Packaging is developed to pull the “idea” together and begin communicating it.

Phase Four – Media Traversal – Key Inflection Point
This is a key inflection point where the issue gains serious legs by being picked up by mainstream media. This can vary depending on the role of mainstream/industrial media in a local, regional or national context. Our research shows that mainstream media plays a vital role in growing awareness around an issue.

Phase Five – Meme Formation & Mass Audience
Depending on mainstream media’s treatment of a story and issue, once there is larger audience buy-in the social media activity takes on a greater intensity. This is a transitional phase towards where we may see it translate from a mostly Cyburbia action into real-world engagement.

Phase Six – Cyber Transference
There may have been street rallies, flash mobs or small demonstrations prior to this point, but it is an inflection point. This is where the masses take to the streets or we see other forms of protest or civil actions taking place outside of Cyburbia. This is a short period as well of perhaps hours.  A number of indicators are at play here with warning signs of impending activity.

Phase Seven – Change Effect & Technology Shift
This is where the use of social media tools takes on a significant shift from planning and organizing to monitoring, documenting and reporting. The original organizing group and the greater online community begin to use these tools (video/photo sharing, blogs, Twitter, Social Networks etc.) to keep momentum going as real-world actions are brought about. Mainstream media may also go into high-gear as a story gains legs and becomes a major issue either locally, regionally, nationally or internationally depending on the scope of the societal changes being sought by citizens. In Egypt, after the government shut down Internet access, instead of driving people home, it actually caused people to wander out into the streets to find out what was happening and they ended up joining the revolution.

Concluding
While this is isn’t how all civil changes occur through the use of social media, we’ve patterned enough uses of the tools in local, regional, national and international contexts to be able to define these phases more clearly. A number of issues can change the steps, cause a campaign to falter or alter course. In developing states much depends on the form of government and that governments approach to social media and the Internet (do they allow free access? Have they co-opted the Internet to produce their own message? etc.) Fringe groups or radicals with extreme views or those in the bane of the conspiracy theorists tend to be marginalized fairly regularly and they rarely gain momentum for change.

The key challenge in monitoring and analysis of these issues is understanding when an “idea” may grow and become a rallying cry that moves into the phases of significant civil society change; whether that’s for local by-laws or overthrowing dictatorships like Egypt and Libya.