Dialog or Conflict: Social Media and the Next Century

No one argues much today that the invention of the printing press was a wonderful thing for humanity. We could suddenly share ideas which turned into better human rights, forms of democracy and a more civil society. Eventually. Then along came the telephone and radio. A new revolution. What followed was one of the bloodiest centuries globally. Today, conflict is declining all over the world…although somedays that may seem a bit unreal.

Use of the Internet and other “Liberation Technologies” such as social media, mobile phones and such, have aided the tranisition of ideas and opinions into political action. Both positive and negative. The Orange Revolution of the Ukraine used SMS messaging via mobiles to organize. Two years later Belarus shut down the mobile networks to prevent such a revolution. The intense protests of the Iranian elections in 2009, although democracy seems to have failed so far.

The online newspaper Malaysiakini has arguably lead to increased democracy and improved human rights in Malaysia. Certainly it has tread where no other traditional newspaper can in Malaysia. China recently battled with Google and in ways, subtly continues to do so. Reports out of Pakistan indicate that Taliban leadership has “gone quiet” in Social Media channels and are resorting to human transfer of messages; although a recent Twitter battle between the State Department & a Taliban spokesperson suggests otherwise.

Personally, I rather hope that these “Liberation Technologies” such as social media tools and the devices that enable their operation, lead to greater democracy worldwide. In fragile nations however, we are increasingly seeing a fragmentation between Elites and the lower classes. Yet both are using social media services. Then we bring in the diaspora and their interconnections between the “home country” and their new “host country” and influence over foreign policies of the host country.

These interactions mean more information reaching the hands of the citizens, being shaped by citizens and communicated into the larger populace, even where Internet access is limited. That foments ideas and then change. Such change in fragile nations is rarely conducted (successful or not) without conflict. Anecdotal y, I suspect we may see less chance of global conflict than before, but an increase in more localized or regional conflict in fragile nations. It is not only Elites that are accessing these Liberation Technologies, but the common citizen. And some governments are becoming clever at using these tools to counter those who want democracy.

International relations have always been complex. With social technologies, they are going to become ever more complex. The relationship between governments, civil society, industry and global organizations is changing. Social technologies and the Internet is about human ideas, it is where ideas get developed and evolve. Now ideas and ideologies can evolve faster. Groups can form, disband and fracture faster and easier than ever before. Our research suggests the views and predictions of thinkers like George Friedman have not accounted for these Liberation Technologies – that may be their Black Swan to what does end up happening.

There is no easy answer and no clear path to the future or to what will or won’t happen. The only sure thing; social medias will result in fundamental shifts in international relations. Lets hope that dialogue reins and the values of democracy prosper.