Mobile & Social Media Global Issues Forecast

Just last year the Indian government decided to implement a program to bring the world’s cheapest tablet device to the population. This to drive increased use of the Internet by it’s citizens. A brilliant move. A Canadian manufacturer won that bid. This signalled a radical change that will begin to have a significant global impact into 2012. In ways that go far beyond the world of consumerism and brands.

2012 Will Be The Year of Mobile. So what?
Nothing new in that proclomation is there? Every pundit and forecaster is saying the same thing. Yet it is true. The impact however, is not just on the world of brands and presenting yet another challenge to marketers, it is more about the impact on the developing world and in regards to how we live and connect as humans globally. As millions of devices spill into the market with high-end devices in developed nations, the developing nations will suddenly have access to a whole new world of content and learning…and engagement.

The Nature of Mobile Content in Social Media
Our research has shown us that engagement in mobile devices is different for social media. For the most part, the most popular form of content created is images via cameras, followed by sharing of other content created more often by non-mobile devices such as PC’s or in media facilities. Very little text content is generated beyond essentially, that of a “tweet” or 140 characters. It is the exception, not the rule, for long blog posts to be written on a smartphone or tablet like the iPad or Galaxy.

The Nature of Mobile Engagement in Social Media
Engagement – or actual interaction on social media services tends to be shorter than on a PC or fixed-device, even a laptop. While laptop computers are mobile, we don’t really classify them as such as they are not “instant-on” or “always-on” devices like tablets and smartphones. The primary purposes of engagement in social media with mobile devices is 1) status updating & checking 2) planning & organising for social or business meetings 3) sharing content from another in ones network or received from another and 4) sharing images and videos. We anticipate significant increases in the sharing of live and streaming video of everything from music concerts to protests like the Occupy movement.

Civil Society & Mobile Device Use
The protests of 2012 will be lively and they will be shared in still and moving image form unlike ever before. This increased sharing will result in either bigger and longer-lasting protests or smaller protests where people can observe and don’t feel the need to participate. More likely we will see wider spread use of these devices in the areas of change for civil society. One risk is the possibility of more “staged events” by protestors and activists such as acts of vandalism or stunts to generate increased awareness. This may present a new challenge to corporations and policing services trying to maintain some form of healthy expression of democratic rights.

The Societal Debates Will Increase
As a result of the use of these mobile devices in civil society by populations for change and democratic expression, we anticipate even more debates around privacy and civil actions. Governments in democracies can no longer just hit a “kill switch” for risk of facing significant outrage by the public. Carriers and content providers will increasingly ask citizens and consumers to give up more of their privacy and that will spark even further debate.

The Mobile World Is Upon Us
So no doubt that significant changes are coming as more and more people are connected. Consumers have found their voice regarding engagement with brands. Now the consumer as a citizen may very well find their voice for changes in society; good and bad. Over 2 Billion humans connect to the Internet today. With the rapid spread of mobile devices, a far lower infrastructure cost than landlines, increased data rates of mobile service providers and ease of use of these devices, the game is truly on in 2012 into 2015 and beyond. An additional challenge for governments and corporations will be capturing useful insights out of the ever increasing and vast amounts of data available online.

Are There Too Many Social Media Apps & Tools?

SmartPhone growth is increasing rapidly and the adoption of tablets like the iPad and Galaxy are keeping apace. But these are the gadgets themselves, not the apps. And we’re starting to see some decline of levelling off on the adoption and use of a number of social media tools. Most notably with geolocation services and augmented reality apps.

A recent study by Forrestor Research indicates that 70% of American adults don’t even know what a geolocation service (e.g. Yelp and FourSquare) is…that’s slightly better than the 85% just over a year ago. While that may give someone some heart (if you’re in sector) that there is hope, our research shows a decline in use of these tools across the U.S. and Canada as well. Less often do we see services like Yelp come up in our research and when we do, it’s mostly the under 30 age group using them. The +30 segment seems to prefer Yelp over FourSquare which we find lands, well, squarely, in the 19-29 demographic.

When it comes to Augmented Reality tools, they too have grown in use, but not significantly. In two research projects for clients in the marketing sector we found a decrease in mentions of Augmented Reality in the US and parts of Canada and negative sentiment was still fairly high on average. Most common was the complaint of using the tools to be clunky and often not working even after a software download. We don’t see significant adoption of AR until it becomes as easy to use as QR codes and doesn’t require all kinds of software to download.

Speaking of QR Codes. A recent study by Archrival in the U.S. showed that 80% of university students found using QR codes difficult and awkward. We’ve seen similar statements of confusion or non-interest in Canada in some of our research for clients.

Are We Saturated?
With over 300 blogging platforms, 200+ social networks, over 80 microblog platforms (no, Twitter is not the only one), and thousands of other services and tools along with the ecosystem support tools (e.g. Twitter clients like HootSuite or Seesmic) and plug-ins, well, perhaps it’s a little crowded. In our research, we are seeing that the majority of the market is using an average of 3 services regularly (social network, microblog and one other) and 2-3 additional in an irregular basis (bi-monthly or quarterly.) We see this indicating that we may be seeing consumer fatigue over the volume of technologies and apps rolling out. A lot of new technologies are just not seeing mass adoption anymore. For them to be successful, these tools and apps have to move out of the echo chamber of the Technocrats and techy pundits into mainstream. When Twitter found its way onto CNN and Fox News it grew significantly.

So What Does This Mean? The Bar Is Raised!
For marketers it creates a nightmare of channel fragmentation which means more up front research and constantly re-evaluating where to put the chopped up marketing budget. For developers of new apps and services they will need to significantly raise the bar into 2012 or face slow or no adoption. For investors and VC’s, they’ll likely see more failures unless they do good due diligence up front to determine the significant difference and value. Consumers only want to use so many tools. Civil society from that context is the same.

Innovation is vital to a good economy and we have no doubt these innovations will continue, but it will be even harder into 2012 for new services to get adopted. We may also see QR codes fall increasingly by the way-side. That’s okay. It’s all part of the evolution of this fascinating period in time where humanity and technology intersect.

Why Are We Still Having PR Crises in Social Media?

We’re a good 5 years into the whole commercialisation of the social web and social media tools now. Facebook has become a channel and so has Twitter. Over 2 billion people are connected in the world. We’ve had some doozies of PR fails in social media and crises evolve from the use of social media by average citizens. Some have hit major news media like CNN (e.g. United broke my guitar and Motrin moms.) Yet we’re still seeing these crises occur. Most recently with the Penn State issue over Sandusky. In fact some might say these crises are on the rise. Why?

The C-Suite Still Isn’t Listening
We’ve seen it with a number of our clients, even this year. We provide them the analysis of how the social media crisis they’re facing happened, where it spread, which group or individual drove it and the content/messaging that evolved. Usually there is a deer-in-the-headlights look from the CEO or VP followed by an expletive. The other phrase we often hear is, “but this stuff is for kids.” Unfortunately that sentiment is still largely the case in the C-suite. Few executives actually, if ever, use these social media tools in many industries. They just don’t have the time and the responsibility for this is levelled at the PR or marketing teams and seen mostly as part of a marketing channel. For the marketing VP it is seen mostly as a broadcast channel, not an engagement channel. Unless you use social media tools it is hard to wrap ones head around it.

The Impact is Still Intangible
Sort of. In some cases such as United and the guitar fiasco it is immediately measurable. In others, like the Keystone XL issue, it is more complex and harder to definitively say that social media use directly resulted in Obama’s decision to delay. But social media was used by individuals and groups; it was very coordinated and  focused over a long period of time. For many businesses the impact is soft in a sense, until sales decline or a legislative issue doesn’t pass. Sometimes it is hard to clarify. But the fact is, these tools are being used by citizens and they are having an impact. It’s just about degrees.

Businesses Run On Process
All businesses run on processes. Companies spend hundreds of millions of dollars shaping and refining their processes. From sales to marketing to manufacturing and hiring. With larger businesses, social media is disruptive and challenges industrial era thinking. It is hard for a large company to quickly shift gears. This presents an immediate disadvantage to business. One that people have knowingly or unconsciously taken advantage of.

So it is a combination of issues that come together and we suspect there will be more PR crises to come and probably some very nasty ones. In fact we expect them to rise into 2014. Until senior management in all industries comes to greater grips of the potential damage, even if they aren’t using social media as a company, these types of crises aren’t going away anytime soon. Some firms have implemented social media monitoring tools for online reputation management, but even then they are not immune to a crises happening.

(Photo Credit: Benedetto Tozi on Flickr)

Keystone XL and The Impact of Social Media Study

Today we announced the release of our groundbreaking research into a major issue that crosses two borders – the Keystone XL pipeline and how social media was used.

Download the free report here: MediaBadger Keystone Research. No registration required.

We note that this was an in-house research project by our own team and was not sponsored by any company, organisation or individual. Some of the key findings of this report are;

• This issue galvanised very large numbers of people, organisations and groups on both sides of the Canada-US border and social media facilitated cross-border connections and relationships.
• Negative sentiment around Keystone has remained a majority view among people active in social media channels since this issue entered the public domain in July 2008.
• Positive sentiment, however, has gained momentum over the past year and has nearly closed the gap with negative sentiment in some channels.
• Our research also suggests that social media was vital in incorporating  the views of local, civil society groups from rural areas in a broad public debate.
• Finally, the issue also moved into the social media dialogue surrounding the 2011 Climate Change Conference in Durban, South Africa this December.

We can certainly see the social media is having an increasingly bigger impact on our world beyond just marketing. Increasingly, citizens are learning how to use these technologies to organise and drive change not just in democracies, but in dictatorships like Egypt and Tunisia.

So what do you think? Will social media continue to be as or more important in society?

Social Media As a Soft Power Tool in Global Affairs

Based on much of our research, social media is not just a tool for promoting democracy (although that is hotly debated) but we see it as becoming a “soft power” tool on global issues. Perhaps one that even citizens can use to garner influence and attention from other nation states. For those not familiar with hard and soft power, in a very simple way it is this; “hard power” is the use of military forces in a direct way (i.e. bombing Libya recently to aid democratic forces) whereas “soft power” are tools like sanctions (economic) that can impact a country (e.g. sanctions against Syria’s dictatorship.)

Social Media and The Art of Political Perceptions in Soft Power
Perhaps one of the best examples of using social media tools in the ongoing game of “soft power” is the US State Department. Closely followed by the UK government. On the dictatorial side is Iran with it’s army of counter revolutionary bloggers and the likes of Hugo Chavez using Twitter (given all the coffee Chavez drinks Twitter would seem to suit him.)

These tools become just another part of the arsenal of persuasion and perception development/management as part of a governments communications strategy. But they are not insignificant as some might think. In ways small and large, these messages enter the Cyburbian stream of concsiousness, they are shared, edited, discussed, debated and added to. They can also add context to a situation that may not find coverage in traditional news media.

Defining Positioning
Using social media services, governments can define their positions more clearly using text, images and video. This then becomes a relied upon source by academia, think-tanks and other governments. We’re not indicating the “truth” of a statement or definition of a position, just that this is how they can be used. How they are used.

Civil Society Has a Big Voice
The other side of this is that civil society groups (from Greenpeace to PETA to Medicins Sans Frontiers) now have a global voice. They can and do use these tools to shape views, opinions and perceptions. Influential citizens can join the conversation as well and become thought leaders both for an against issues in any language or culture. This new ability for civil society to participate in the global dialogue and have influence is a new dynamic in applying to soft power.

There is a whole new dynamic to global communications and their impact on the use of soft power tools. One that will offer some fascinating areas of study for many years to come.